Key Takeaways
- Chamath Palihapitiya mentioned marginal liquidity now prefers prediction markets and equities over bitcoin.
- Bitcoin’s hashrate slid 7.9% to 908 EH/s this month, forcing a 5% issue reduce as miners eye AI computing offers.
- Polymarket merchants give bitcoin simply 10% odds of reaching $100,000 by Dec. 31, 2026, as BTC at the moment traits close to $64,000.
A Two-Entrance Squeeze
The Social Capital founder’s argument, highlighted in a publish on X, states that the incremental greenback and the incremental megawatt (sources that after flowed to bitcoin by default) now have extra engaging locations, including:
Marginal liquidity would relatively speculate in prediction and fairness markets, and marginal vitality to mine BTC is price way more if redirected to AI.
Palihapitiya is not any stranger to provocative bitcoin calls, provided that he was an early adopter who as soon as urged everybody to place 1% of their internet price into the asset (even floating a $240,000 long-term value goal). But in March, he questioned bitcoin’s suitability as a central financial institution reserve asset, arguing its traceability weakens fungibility.
On July 14, he warned individually that unchecked AI “tokenmaxxing” spending is quietly eroding company earnings.
The Knowledge Behind Each Claims
On the liquidity facet, prediction markets posted a report $10.8 billion week this summer time, because the SpaceX preliminary public providing (IPO), the FIFA World Cup and geopolitics pulled speculative capital into occasion contracts. Polymarket merchants at the moment value simply 10% odds of bitcoin reaching $100,000 by Dec. 31, 2026, whereas giving 67% odds it reaches $70,000.
On the vitality facet, the migration is already measurable as Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 7.9% in ten days to 908 EH/s, and Bitcoin.com Information reported that the community’s issue dropped 5% to 127.17 trillion on July 11 (its 14th reset of 2026) as miners diverted machines and megawatts elsewhere.
Business analysts have described miners as abandoning the community for AI and high-performance computing contracts, with one setting a 2028 deadline for the pattern to peak.
Pushback From Coinbase’s Chief
Not everybody appears to be onboard such a bearish learn, with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responding the identical day that “hash energy or vitality going to Bitcoin mining doesn’t decide its value,” noting the community’s issue mechanically adjusts when miners go offline to maintain blocks flowing on the similar tempo.
The controversy now activates whether or not the squeeze is structural or cyclical. The following issue changes, the tempo of miner AI offers, and whether or not prediction-market volumes hold compounding will present whether or not the marginal greenback and megawatt come again to bitcoin or whether or not the bulls should win with out them.
