Bitcoin might emerge as a long-term winner if international authorities verify the existence of non-human intelligence, even when the quick fallout triggers a extreme monetary shock.
Over the weekend, studies emerged that Helen McCaw, a former senior analyst on the Financial institution of England, urged Governor Andrew Bailey to think about contingency planning for a state of affairs wherein the US authorities, or one other credible authority, releases definitive proof that humanity just isn’t alone.
In her evaluation, the chance is not only market chaos. It’s a fast-moving confidence shock that might propagate from asset costs into the plumbing of on a regular basis life, probably inflicting financial institution runs, fee disruptions, and, within the worst case, civil dysfunction.
Ontological shock
McCaw anchors her case in “ontological shock,” a time period more and more utilized in threat circles to explain the destabilizing results of an abrupt shift in shared actuality.
On this state of affairs, collective psychological disorientation interprets straight into materials financial outcomes.
McCaw, in a Sol Basis white paper, argued that this example might result in a monetary instability channel.
She wrote that if UAP (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) disclosure implies a “energy and intelligence larger than any authorities,” it might undermine the legitimacy and belief that markets and banking techniques depend on in silence.
In response to her:
“Affirmation, and even widespread hypothesis, that new applied sciences exist could be an exogenous shock to international monetary markets. The human response might have quick ramifications in these markets, whether or not as a result of hypothesis or new details.”
Given these stakes, she argues the Financial institution of England should “take motion” to handle disclosure-related monetary stability dangers.
Whereas the premise resembles science fiction, the cultural context has shifted over the previous yr.
For context, US lawmakers, together with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, are more and more calling for presidency transparency concerning UAP.
Nevertheless, the probabilities of such a disclosure anytime quickly seem slim regardless of high-level political engagement. On Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform, a contract titled “Will the US verify that aliens exist earlier than 2027?” trades at roughly 13 cents, implying a 13% likelihood.
Nonetheless, McCaw’s pitch is basically that the rising institutional consideration and the high-impact penalties of any such affirmation justify planning forward.
In opposition to that backdrop, CryptoSlate has modeled how an “ontological shock” state of affairs would possible play out for Bitcoin.
Quick-term impact
If this tail occasion strikes, the quick query for buyers is: What breaks first?
McCaw raises the chance that the general public would possibly rotate towards digital currencies like Bitcoin in the event that they “query the legitimacy of presidency” and lose belief in sovereign property.
Nevertheless, market mechanics recommend a distinct preliminary response. Alien disclosure is basically an uncertainty shock, and uncertainty shocks commerce in two distinct phases.
In Section 1, which might final from hours to days, the market faces a “promote what you’ll be able to” downside.
Within the first window after a high-credibility, reality-rewriting announcement, markets normally don’t behave like rational discounting machines. They behave like threat managers and margin clerks.
Three causes recommend Bitcoin is weak instantly, even when it later advantages from a “mistrust hedge” narrative.
First, Bitcoin is liquid 24/7, which makes it the primary strain valve. When equities are closed, and headlines hit, crypto is the place international merchants can immediately minimize publicity. That makes BTC a frequent supply of “on the spot liquidity,” not an automated protected haven.
Second, correlations rise when everybody de-risks collectively.
The IMF has repeatedly documented that crypto and fairness markets have develop into extra interconnected. Which means market spillovers in returns and volatility can improve, particularly round stress episodes, undermining diversification while you want it most.
Third, volatility just isn’t priced for civilization-scale surprises.
As of mid-January 2026, the VIX (one of many market’s most-watched measures of implied US fairness volatility) has been within the mid-teens. If disclosure reprices volatility upward sharply, threat limits tighten, VaR (Worth at Danger) shocks ripple, and levered positions unwind.
In these moments, “digital gold” narratives typically lose to “cut back gross publicity now.”
Put bluntly, the primary transfer is prone to be risk-off, and Bitcoin will likely be handled as excessive beta by many macro desks.
Lengthy-term implications for gold and Bitcoin
It is just in Section 2, lasting weeks to months, that the commerce would possibly shift to the “belief premium” McCaw envisions.
After the primary scramble, the query adjustments from “what’s liquid?” to “what’s professional?”
If affirmation of non-human intelligence is interpreted as proof that governments weren’t absolutely clear or not absolutely in management, then a bit of the general public and investor base might begin demanding property that really feel much less tied to state credibility.
That’s the place Bitcoin can plausibly transfer from “offered for liquidity” to “purchased for exit optionality.”
On this case, the disclosure would set off sustained mistrust in establishments, which might power some buyers to hunt an asset that’s borderless, self-custodiable, and never a declare on any financial institution.
If capital controls or emergency measures develop into a part of the political response, even briefly, the “censorship-resistance” narrative turns into greater than branding. It turns into a risk-management characteristic.
Nevertheless, McCaw raises an important level concerning conventional protected havens like gold.
She means that if markets speculate that spacefaring capabilities might broaden the provision of treasured metals (through asteroid mining or new materials sciences), gold’s shortage narrative faces a theoretical problem.
In that context, Bitcoin faces no such bodily threat as its shortage is mathematically enforced. Basically, the highest crypto protocol’s 21 million exhausting cap stays immutable.
So, in a world the place the bodily constraints of the universe are all of a sudden up for debate, the inflexible, unyielding certainty of Bitcoin’s code might command a large premium.
