For years, weight problems charges within the US have gone in a single path: up. From the primary yr it was launched, Gallup’s Nationwide Well being and Properly-Being Index has discovered that the share of US adults reporting weight problems has climbed and climbed, rising from 25.5 p.c in 2008 to 39.9 p.c in 2022. That survey caught the final leg of an epidemic that has been spreading for many years, with estimated weight problems prevalence tripling over the previous 60 years.
It’s not that the nation hasn’t tried to battle weight acquire. However from the $33 billion Individuals spend annually on weight reduction merchandise and companies to authorities efforts like first woman Michelle Obama’s Let’s Transfer marketing campaign or Make America Wholesome Once more, little has labored. Many docs and sufferers got here to imagine the rise in weight problems could also be all however biologically inescapable, regardless of the grave well being dangers that accompany it.
However possibly not. In accordance with the most recent outcomes from Gallup’s survey, self-reported weight problems has began to fall, declining by almost 3 factors to 37 p.c in 2025. The self-reporting half is a vital limitation — individuals’s reporting of their weight tends to be imprecise — and we’ll want extra definitive proof from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention to make sure, however it’s a number of the earliest proof that the US might lastly be turning a nook on one of many largest well being crises of the fashionable age.
And the primary purpose it seems to be taking place isn’t as a result of weight-loss consultants have stumbled upon a brand new weight loss program that at all times works (we haven’t and possibly by no means will) or as a result of we’ve managed to ban all unhealthy junk meals (we haven’t and nearly definitely by no means will). It’s doubtless due to the rising use of glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists, higher generally known as GLP-1 medicine like Ozempic and Wegovy.
What’s modified is we now have extremely efficient weight-loss medicines working at a scale that we’ve by no means seen earlier than.
Older weight-loss medicine tended to shave off just a few share factors of physique weight, and so they got here with powerful trade-offs and fast weight rebound. The brand new medicine, which had been initially developed to deal with diabetes, are focusing on the biology that makes weight so exhausting to lose and maintain off: They dial down starvation within the mind, sluggish gastric emptying, and enhance post-meal insulin signaling. In massive randomized trials, semaglutide 2.4 mg — the lively ingredient utilized in medicines like Ozempic — produced about 15 p.c common weight reduction over 68 weeks when paired with primary way of life assist. Different mixtures have reached as a lot as 20 p.c on increased doses.
These impact sizes are sufficiently big that, when even a modest share of adults use them, you can begin to see motion within the inhabitants knowledge. And as additional knowledge from Gallup exhibits, increasingly Individuals try these medicine, with the survey discovering that greater than 12 p.c of adults reported taking them within the second and third quarters of 2025, up from lower than 6 p.c in early 2024.
And whereas a lot of the media protection round these medicine has centered on weight and look, the well being advantages appear to go a lot additional. In 2024 the Meals and Drug Administration added cardiovascular danger as a purpose to be prescribed the GLP-1 drug Wegovy, grounded in outcomes from a serious trial that confirmed fewer coronary heart assaults, strokes, and cardiovascular deaths in adults with weight problems or chubby and established coronary heart illness. The FDA’s motion additionally opened a door for Medicare protection in sufferers with heart problems — an early signal that entry for these costly medicines might develop past the well-insured.
The upside of downsizing — and the negative effects
It’s nonetheless early days, but when the nationwide weight problems curve retains bending down, the advantages could be huge. Weight problems multiplies danger throughout almost each main reason for loss of life; even small, sustained declines in prevalence translate into tens of millions fewer individuals residing with diabetes, coronary heart illness, sleep apnea, and painful joint illness — and billions saved in medical prices over time. The CDC pegs direct medical spending tied to weight problems at roughly $173 billion. Turning that curve even just a little would signify vital aid.
However we’re a great distance from fixing this drawback. For one factor, as efficient as they’re, these medicine behave extra like statins than antibiotics: They work when you take them. When individuals cease, weight regain is frequent.
And GLP-1s do include negative effects that for some sufferers have been severe sufficient to result in discontinuation. Scientists additionally nonetheless aren’t certain about a number of the longer-term results of the medicine, which can embrace muscle loss and modifications to intercourse drives. And don’t neglect the four-figure month-to-month aspect impact on the pockets if GLP-1s should be paid for out of pocket. Weight problems is already linked to decrease socioeconomic standing, and that disparity might worsen if GLP-1s stay out of attain for all however high-income individuals.
Chances are high, although, that the present era of GLP-1s is the worst and costliest we’ll ever have. Drug firms are already experimenting with capsule types of the drugs, which might make dosing extra exact and decrease the barrier to entry: as a lot as 20 p.c of the American public has some type of needle phobia (or trypanophobia, for individuals who need a terrific Scrabble phrase).
I’ll admit there’s one thing uncomfortable in regards to the concept of fixing weight problems primarily by way of a drug. In any case, as Well being Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is fond of claiming, can’t we repair weight problems by way of more healthy meals and extra train? However whereas our meals system might certainly be improved and most of us don’t get sufficient train, it’s not as if we haven’t tried, whether or not as people or as a rustic. The straightforward truth is that the modern surroundings is one that’s closely weighted towards the obesogenic. GLP-1 medicine appear to supply one of the best likelihood to tilt the scales again in our favor.
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