KEY
TAKEAWAYS
- The Zweig Breadth Thrust and 200-day SMA cross for SPY are bullish.
- Nevertheless, the MidCap and SmallCap ETFs are again beneath their 200-day SMAs
- S&P 1500 breadth has not broadened sufficient to counsel a bull market.
The bullish indicators stacked up in April and Could, however most long-term breadth indicators are nonetheless bearish. SPY and QQQ confirmed indicators of capitulation in early April and rebounded into mid April. A Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered on April twenty fourth and a number of other different thrust indicators turned bullish in Could. We additionally noticed SPY and QQQ break their 200-day SMAs. TrendInvestorPro is monitoring these signs and related exit methods.
These are bullish indications for large-caps and, maybe, shares within the high half of the S&P 500. Nevertheless, I might not name it a bull market till participation broadens. The chart beneath reveals the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) and S&P MidCap 400 SPDR (MDY) shifting again beneath their 200-day SMAs. The S&P SmallCap 600 SPDR (IJR) by no means got here shut and stays a giant laggard.
The underside window is maybe essentially the most telling. It reveals the proportion of S&P 1500 shares above their 200-day SMAs. This long-term breadth indicator didn’t cross above 50% in Could. Aside from a 1-day dip on January tenth, this indicator was above 50% from December 2023 to February 2025 (bull market). It broke beneath 40% on March tenth and has but to totally get well (bear market).
On the very least, a transfer above 50% is required to point out broadening participation price of a bull market. That is how the market strikes from bullish thrust indicators to a bull market. Till such a transfer, we’re nonetheless in bear market mode and threat stays above common for shares. Word that the S&P 1500 contains large-caps (500), small-caps (600) and mid-caps (400). Round 2/3 of elements NYSE shares and 1/3 Nasdaq shares. It’s a really consultant of the broader market.
Exit methods are simply as necessary as entries. The Zweig Breadth Thrust and the 5/200 day SMA cross supplied entry indicators in April and Could. We now want an exit technique. TrendInvestorPro put forth exit methods for each indicators and these are up to date in our stories. This week we coated the hole zones in SPY and QQQ, long-term breadth indicators, large strikes in metals and continued energy in Bitcoin. Click on right here to take a trial and achieve full entry.
////////////////////////////////////////////
Select a Technique, Develop a Plan and Observe a Course of
Arthur Hill, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com
Writer, Outline the Development and Commerce the Development
Wish to keep updated with Arthur’s newest market insights?
– Observe @ArthurHill on Twitter
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic strategy of figuring out development, discovering indicators inside the development, and setting key value ranges has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for quite a few monetary publications together with Barrons and Shares & Commodities Journal. Along with his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Enterprise Faculty at Metropolis College in London.
