Welcome to The Market’s Compass Rising Market’s Nation ETF Examine, Week #537. As at all times, it highlights the technical modifications of the 20 EM Nation ETFs that I observe on a weekly foundation and publish each third week. Paid subscribers will obtain this week’s unabridged Rising Market’s Nation ETF Examine despatched to their registered e-mail. In celebration of the Easter Vacation, free subscribers will even obtain the total model (in a thinly veiled try and lure them into changing into paid subscribers). Previous publications might be accessed by paid subscribers by way of The Market’s Compass Substack Weblog. Subsequent week I will likely be publishing The Market’s Compass Developed Markets Nation ETF Examine. On Sunday I’ll publish the most recent version of The Market’s Compass Crypto Candy Sixteen Examine which I publish on a weekly foundation and tracks the technical modifications of sixteen of the bigger capitalized Cryptocurrencies.
To grasp the methodology utilized in establishing the target EM Nation ETF Particular person Technical Rankings go to the mc’s technical indicators web page at www.themarketscompass.com and choose “em nation etfs”.
To grasp the methodology utilized in establishing the target EM Nation ETF Particular person Technical Rankings go to the mc’s technical indicators web page at www.themarketscompass.com and choose “em nation etfs”.
This previous week The Complete EM Technical Rating or “TEMTR” rose +22.92% to 539 from 438.5 the earlier week, which was one other sharp rise of +28.78% to 438.5 from 340.5 three weeks in the past. The Complete Lat AM EM Rating led the opposite two geographic areas increased, rising 28.7% to 181.5 from 141. The EMEA EM Complete Technical Rating rose 20.7% to 181 from 150 the earlier week. The Complete Asia-Pacific EM Rating rose 19.7% to 176.5 from 147.5.
Seventeen of the twenty EM Nation ETFs I observe in these pages registered enchancment of their TRs over the Good Friday Vacation shortened week ending April seventeenth, one was unchanged, and two ETF TRs fell. The typical TR acquire was +5.03 vs. the earlier week’s common TR acquire of +4.90 when fifteen out of twenty gained floor, two have been unchaged, and two fell. Seven of the EM Nation ETF TRs ended the week within the “inexperienced zone” (TRs between 34.5 and 50), 9 have been within the “blue zone” (TRs between 15.5 and 34) and 4 have been within the “crimson zone” (TRs between 0 and 15). That was a enchancment from the earlier week when solely two have been within the “inexperienced zone”, eleven have been within the “blue zone” and 7 have been within the “crimson zone”. All 5 of the Lat/ AM ETFs registered enchancment of their TRs with 4 out of the 5 coming into the “inexperienced zone”.
*To grasp the development the of The Technical Situation Elements go to the mc’s technical indicators web page at www.themarketscompass.com and choose “em nation etfs”.
This previous week a 76.43% studying was registered within the Each day Momentum Technical Situation Issue (”DMTCF”) or 107 out of a doable complete of 140 optimistic factors. That was increased from the week earlier than studying of 42.14% or 59 which was a serious carry from the deeply oversold situation three weeks in the past, of 5.71% of solely 8 out of 140 factors.
As a affirmation software, if all eight TCFs enhance on a week-over-week foundation, extra of the 20 ETFs are bettering internally on a technical foundation, confirming a broader market transfer increased (consider an advance/decline calculation). Conversely if all eight TCFs fall on a week-over-week foundation it confirms a broader market transfer decrease. Final week six TCFs rose, one was unchanged, and one fell.
*A short rationalization of the way to interpret RRG charts go to the mc’s technical indicators web page at www.themarketscompass.com and choose “em nation etfs”. To study extra detailed interpretations, see the postscripts and hyperlinks on the finish of this Weblog.
The chart beneath has three weeks, or 15 days*, of Relative information factors vs. the benchmark, the EEM (the Rising Markets ETF), on the middle, deliniated by the dots or nodes. Not all 20 ETFs are plotted on this RRG Chart. I’ve performed this for readability functions. These which I consider are of upper technical curiosity stay.
*Due to the vacation shortened week, there are solely 14 days of information factors
After I printed the final EM Nation ETF Examine on March thirty first, I highlighted the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) which had fallen sharply from the Main Quadrant by the Weakening Quadrant and ending up within the Lagging Quadrant. Earlier than rolling over final week the TUR rose sharply into the Bettering Quadrant exhibiting Constructive upside Relative Power Momentum (observe the gap between the each day nodes) because it rose into the Bettering Quadrant. The iShares Indonesia ETF (EDIO) lifted up out Laging Quadrant three weeks in the past into the Bettering Quadrant however after marking optimistic Relative Power and Momentum two weeks in the past it has rolled over and has begun to trace sideways though it stays within the Main Quadrant. The standout Relative Power performer had, over the earlier two weeks been the iShares MSCI India Index Fund ETF (INDA) till it rolled over final week, dropping upside Relative Power Momentum.
When Trump dropped the “tariff bomb” on the monetary markets three weeks in the past the EEM printed a decrease weely value low beneath the January tenth weekly closing low of 41.02 to shut three weeks in the past at 40.58 in live performance with the “TER” falling to 340.05. That stated the TER didn’t print a decrease low and has since risen again to 539.5 however, it will be untimely to declare that it was a non-confirmation of the worth lows, however the 13-Week Exponential transferring common of the “TER” is hooking increased. Extra on the longer-term technical situation of the EEM follows…
The Common Weekly Technical Rating (“ATR”) is the typical Technical Rating (“TR”) of the 20 Rising Markets Nation ETFs we observe weekly and is plotted within the decrease panel on the Weekly Candle Chart of the EEM introduced beneath. Just like the TER, it’s a affirmation/divergence or overbought/oversold indicator.
4 weeks in the past, costs have been teetering on assist supplied by the Decrease Parallel (stable crimson line) of the longer-term Commonplace Pitchfork (violet P1 by P3) after being capped at value resistance at 45.50 for the second time the week earlier than. The next week costs broke beneath assist on the of the longer-term Pitchfork and the Cloud. Costs traded decrease two weeks in the past earlier than a short lived reversal in Trump’s Tariff plans led to a pointy intra-week turnaround. I’ve since drawn a brand new Schiff Pitchfork (crimson P1 by P3). Costs have retaken the bottom above the Median Line (crimson dotted line) of the shorter-term Pitchfork however have been capped on the Kijun Plot (inexperienced line) and the Cloud final week. Each MACD and the Stochastic Momentum Index rolled over by their sign traces however (due to the worth reversal at P3) there’s a trace of stabilization within the shorter-term Stochastic Momentum Index. That in itself is just not sufficient to recommend {that a} sustainable low is in place.
Study Pitchforks and Inside Traces within the three-part Pitchfork tutorial within the Market’s Compass web site, www.themarketscompass.com
Extra on the technical situation of the EEM in Ideas on the Brief-Time period Technical Situation of the EEM however first…
*For the four-day Vacation shortened week ending April seventeenth. Doesn’t embrace dividends if any.
Fifteen of the twenty EM Nation ETFs have been up on an absolute foundation final week (the iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY) was flat on the week) and 4 traded decrease. Fifteen EM ETFs outperformed the 0.41% acquire within the EEM on a relative foundation. The typical four-day absolute acquire within the EM ETFs was +2.00% including to the earlier week’s common absolute acquire of +3.82% serving to to reverse the -6.80% common absolute loss registered three weeks in the past.
On the time of our final missive on the shorter-term technical situation of the EEM (highlighted with the yellow circle) costs continued (for weeks) to trace sideways in a 3 level vary. That was till the next week when costs fell sharply decrease beneath assist afforded by the Cloud and VAP assist (quantity at value) due to the “Tariff Bomb”. Two extra days of prolonged value weak point caused an oversold situation as witnessed by 10-Day Stochastic Momentum and extra importantly, my EM Nation ETD Each day Momentum / Breadth Oscillator and a pointy value reversal unfolded which led to me to attract the brand new Commonplace Pitchfork (violet P1 by P3) and per week in the past final Friday, the EEM overtook the Median Line (violet dotted line) of the Pitchfork. That stated, with the oversold gas largely spent, the rally has stalled at what was as soon as VAP assist now turned VAP resistance. It’s untimely to recommend the nadir was reached at P3. Solely a comply with by rally that overtakes VAP resistance, huge Cloud resistance and the Higher Parallel (stable violet line) of the Pitchfork would recommend that the correction has run its course. Consumers watch out for one other “Trump Card” (tip of the hat to Stephen Suttmeier for that one).
All of the charts are courtesy of Optuma whose charting software program allows anybody to visualise any information together with my Goal Technical Rankings. The next hyperlinks are an introduction and an in-depth tutorial on RRG Charts…
https://www.optuma.com/movies/introduction-to-rrg/
https://www.optuma.com/movies/optuma-webinar-2-rrgs/
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