Suncor (TSX:SU) simply hit a brand new 12-month excessive. Traders who missed the rally in latest months are questioning if SU inventory continues to be undervalued and good to purchase for a self-directed Tax-Free Financial savings Account (TFSA) or Registered Retirement Financial savings Plan (RRSP) centered on dividends and long-term whole returns.
Suncor share worth
Suncor trades close to $65 per share on the time of writing. The inventory is up from $45 final April and hasn’t been this excessive since 2008.
Contrarian buyers who had the braveness to purchase Suncor close to $20 per share are having fun with the restoration. Suncor fell out of favour with the market in 2020 when it slashed the dividend within the early weeks of the pandemic in an effort to protect money stream. This upset buyers who held Suncor for its beforehand dependable distribution.
Suncor ultimately reversed the dividend minimize as soon as the oil market stabilized and has since raised the payout steadily. A brand new CEO took management of the enterprise within the spring of 2023. Previously two years, Suncor has made good progress on its turnaround efforts.
The corporate minimize workers to streamline operations and has improved effectivity. Suncor reported report manufacturing at its oil sands services within the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, whereas additionally delivering report throughput on the refineries. Suncor’s built-in enterprise construction, with manufacturing, refining, and retail operations, traditionally attracted buyers as a result of stability the diversified income stream supplied.
This construction is as soon as once more in focus as Canadian vitality buyers strive to determine how a surge in oil manufacturing in Venezuela will impression Canadian oil sands producers. Refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast require the kind of oil that’s produced in each Canada and Venezuela. Because the U.S. will get extra provide from the South American nation, there’ll probably be a decline within the oil bought from Canada.
The continued momentum in Suncor’s share worth in latest days suggests the market expects the corporate to see restricted unfavorable results from latest developments in Venezuela.
Dangers
Oil costs are down significantly from the 2025 excessive. In actual fact, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sells for lower than US$60 per barrel in comparison with greater than US$80 a 12 months in the past. Analysts broadly count on oil costs to stay underneath stress by means of 2026, barring main provide disruptions attributable to geopolitical occasions. Manufacturing in Canada and the US is at report ranges. On the similar time, OPEC is growing output to attempt to recoup misplaced market share. On the demand facet, China’s economic system stays underneath stress as a consequence of challenges within the property market and the impression of U.S. tariffs. International oil demand continues to be on the rise, however analysts predict surplus circumstances over the close to time period.
Alternative
Canadian oil producers are already benefitting from the enhance in export capability that got here with the opening final 12 months of the Trans Mountain enlargement. The developments in Venezuela might push the Canadian authorities to get one other pipeline constructed to attach Alberta’s producers to the coast. This may allow Suncor and its friends to spice up output and promote oil at increased costs to world patrons, with out relying as a lot on the US.
Time to purchase SU inventory?
The turnaround plan goes properly, and Suncor’s built-in enterprise construction means it’s much less uncovered to giant unfavorable strikes within the oil market. Close to-term volatility is predicted, so a greater entry level might emerge within the coming weeks, however oil bulls needs to be snug proudly owning Suncor on the present worth, even after the massive run. For revenue buyers, the three.7% dividend yield pays you properly to experience out market turbulence.
