November has a giant status in bitcoin lore, however the typical November is modest and the blockbuster common is skewed by 2013’s moonshot.
Crypto influencer Lark Davis known as November bitcoin’s “strongest month” with a median achieve close to 42%. The CoinGlass Bitcoin Month-to-month Returns warmth map reveals that quantity is actual for the imply throughout 2013–2025, however it’s not the entire story: November’s median is 8.81%, and the imply is pulled up by 2013’s +449.35% outlier.
That distinction — imply vs. median — issues. The median describes a typical November throughout cycles. The imply is delicate to outsized strikes, and 2013 towers over the pattern. Look down the November column and dispersion jumps out: deep losses in 2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), 2022 (-16.23%); strong positive factors in 2020 (+42.95%), 2024 (+37.29%), and a quieter 2025 (+0.54%). That unfold explains why “November is robust on common” is descriptive historical past, not a forecast.
The place do “Uptober” and “Moonvember” come from? They’re neighborhood memes that reappear every fall to label a hoped-for October rally and a November follow-through. The warmth map does present supportive historical past in locations — October’s common is +19.92% with a median +14.71% — however seasonality by no means ensures outcomes in any single yr.
Easy methods to use this with out fooling your self: pair any seasonal stat with each the imply and the median, cite the vary, and keep away from back-solving the 42% imply into value targets. In apply, merchants search for affirmation — breaks by means of outlined resistance, enhancing breadth, and better quantity — earlier than leaning right into a calendar impact. If the tape doesn’t affirm, the calendar mustn’t carry the commerce.
