The previous week unfolded in opposition to the backdrop of regularly declining liquidity forward of the Christmas holidays and a restricted variety of main macroeconomic releases. Market consideration was centered on US knowledge, together with revised GDP estimates for Q3 and PCE inflation figures printed on December 23-24. These releases set the general buying and selling tone, though in skinny market situations worth actions have been usually amplified by positioning changes and year-end profit-taking.
💶 EUR/USD
EUR/USD ended the week with a acquire of 63 factors (1.1771 versus 1.1708 every week earlier), totally validating our reasonably bullish outlook. Within the coming days, a renewed take a look at of the 1.1800-1.1820 resistance zone is feasible. From this space, a pullback in the direction of 1.1700 could develop, whereas a deeper correction might goal 1.1650-1.1680 after which 1.1575-1.1615. A assured break above 1.1800-1.1820 would open the way in which in the direction of 1.1900-1.1915 after which 1.2000. It ought to be borne in thoughts that through the vacation interval worth actions could also be distorted by low liquidity, due to this fact degree breakouts ought to be handled with warning except confirmed by follow-through.
💹 BTC/USD
Bitcoin closed Friday, December 26, close to 87,400, remaining inside a slender consolidation vary of 86,360-90,580. Initially of the brand new yr, liquidity stays the important thing driver, which means sharp impulses are attainable even within the absence of main information catalysts. Volatility could broaden into the 83,800-94,500 vary. To cancel the bearish situation and resume sustainable progress, the pair would want to consolidate above the 95,000-100,000 zone; nonetheless, this at present seems unlikely. Within the occasion of a break beneath the 83,800 assist, the subsequent bearish goal could be 80,540.
🛢 Brent
Our oil forecast was totally validated. Final week, amid a “pre-Christmas” bullish push, Brent rose to 62.17 {dollars} per barrel, after which sellers sharply reversed the market, driving costs all the way down to 60.10, with the shut at 60.39. It ought to be recalled that on December 16 the worth fell beneath 60.00 for the primary time since Might, and this degree stays a key assist/resistance zone. Within the close to time period, a rebound in the direction of 61.50-63.00 is feasible, with the danger of a return to 60.00 after which to 58.50 and the yearly low at 58.17. Consolidation above 65.00-66.00 would cancel the bearish situation and open the way in which for a restoration in the direction of the 69.00-70.00 space.
🥇 XAU/USD
What we had repeatedly warned about has materialised: on December 23 gold reached 4,500 {dollars} per ounce and closed the week at 4,532, sustaining a robust uptrend. In situations of diminished liquidity, corrective pullbacks could also be swift; nonetheless, demand might stay resilient so long as key assist ranges maintain. A brief-term correction in the direction of 4,350-4,380 is feasible. A break beneath 4,250 would quickly cancel the bullish situation and level to the danger of a deeper correction in the direction of 4,170-4,200. If progress resumes, the bulls’ goal in Q1 2026 can be to succeed in 4,700 and, within the occasion of a beneficial macro setting, 5,000.
📈 Conclusion
Within the coming week, the worldwide financial calendar is just about empty, as monetary markets function with considerably diminished exercise as a result of holidays, whereas central banks and statistical businesses in most nations are closed or launch minimal knowledge.
Baseline situation: impartial with a reasonably bullish bias whereas EUR/USD stays above the 1.1680-1.1700 zone. For BTC/USD, a impartial outlook throughout the consolidation vary; for Brent, impartial with a reasonably bearish bias. For XAU/USD, bullish, with shopping for on pullbacks from 4,350-4,380 and 4,250.
