The astounding drop in violent crime that started within the Nineteen Nineties and prolonged by means of the mid-2010s is likely one of the most vital — and most underappreciated — excellent news tales of current reminiscence. That made its reversal through the pandemic so worrying.
Within the first full yr of the pandemic, the FBI tallied 22,134 murders nationwide, up from 16,669 in 2019 — a rise of roughly 34 p.c, the sharpest one-year rise in fashionable crime record-keeping. In 2021, Philadelphia alone recorded a file 562 homicides, whereas Baltimore skilled a near-record 337 murders. Between 2019 and 2020, the typical variety of weekly emergency division visits for gunshots elevated by 37 p.c, and largely stayed excessive by means of the next yr.
By the 2024 election, for the primary time in awhile, violent crime was a significant political subject within the US. A Pew survey that yr discovered that 58 p.c of People believed crime needs to be a prime precedence for the president and Congress, up from 47 p.c in 2021.
And but even because the presidential marketing campaign was unfolding, the violent crime spike of the pandemic had already subsided — and crime charges have stored dropping. The FBI’s 2023 crime report discovered that homicide was down almost 12 p.c yr over yr, and in 2024 it stored falling to roughly 16,700 murders, on par with pre-pandemic ranges. The early numbers for 2025 are so promising that Jeff Asher, among the finest unbiased analysts on crime, not too long ago requested in a chunk whether or not this yr might have the bottom homicide price in US historical past.
All of which raises two questions: What’s driving a lower in crime each bit as sharp because the pandemic-era enhance? And why accomplish that many people discover it so exhausting to consider?
We shouldn’t bounce to conclusions about this yr’s crime charges primarily based on the early knowledge, particularly since we’re simply now starting the summer time, when violent crime nearly all the time rises. Crime knowledge within the US can also be patchy and sluggish — I can inform you what number of soybeans the US raised in March, however I can’t inform you how many individuals have been murdered within the US this yr.
However what we are able to inform seems to be excellent. The Actual-Time Crime Index, an educational challenge that collects crime knowledge from greater than 380 police companies protecting almost 100 million individuals, estimates there have been 1,488 murders within the US this yr by means of March, in comparison with an estimated 1,899 over the identical months final yr. That’s a lower of almost 22 p.c. Violent crime general is down by about 11 p.c. Motorized vehicle theft, which grew to become an epidemic through the pandemic, is down by over 26 p.c.
Peer all the way down to the native stage, and the image simply retains getting higher. In Baltimore, which The Wire made synonymous with violent, drug-related crime, homicides fell to 199 final yr, its greatest displaying in over a decade. As of early Might, the town had 45 murders, down one other third from the identical interval final yr. Metropolis emergency rooms that have been as soon as filled with gunshot victims have gone quiet.
How a lot decrease might it go nationally? The file low murder price, a minimum of since nationwide information began being stored in 1960, is 4.45 per 100,000 in 2014. To date this yr, in line with Asher, homicide is down in 25 of the 30 cities that reported probably the most murders in 2023. Asher argues that if the numbers maintain, “a ten p.c or extra decline in homicide nationally in 2025 would roughly tie 2014 for the bottom homicide price ever recorded.”
What’s behind the drop?
Briefly: The pandemic led to an enormous enhance in violent crime, and because the pandemic waned, so did the wave.
The closure of colleges through the pandemic, particularly in already higher-crime cities within the Northeast, meant much more younger males — who’re statistically extra prone to be both perpetrators of violent crime or victims of it — on the streets. The closure of social providers left fewer assets for them to attract on; and the sheer stress of a once-in-a-lifetime well being disaster set everybody on edge. The homicide of George Floyd in spring 2020 led to a collapse in group belief in policing, which in flip appeared to result in much less aggressive policing altogether. Because the pandemic eased, although, these buffers got here again, offering a pure brake on violent crime.
However the authorities, from the nationwide stage all the way down to cities, additionally took direct actions to stem the flood of violence. The White Home beneath President Joe Biden poured tons of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} into group violence interruption applications, which goal to interrupt the cycle of retribution that may result in murder. Baltimore’s Group Violence Discount Technique has introduced collectively group teams and regulation enforcement to discourage the individuals thought-about most definitely to get entangled in gun violence. And the erosion in police forces nationwide that occurred through the pandemic has largely stopped.
The state of affairs is much from excellent. Although Floyd’s homicide triggered a nationwide reckoning round police violence, current knowledge reveals that police killings stored rising, partially as a result of concern of crime typically stopped momentum round reforms. Right here in New York, whilst general crime on the subways has fallen to historic lows, felony assaults on the trains have stored rising, fueling fears of lawlessness.
Why can’t we consider it?
As Memorial Day weekend marks the beginning of summer time, the following few months will inform whether or not the pandemic was really only a blip within the long-term discount in violent crime. However what we are able to say is most individuals don’t appear to note the optimistic traits. An October 2024 ballot by Gallup discovered that 64 p.c of People believed there was extra crime nationwide than the yr earlier than, although by that point in 2024, the post-pandemic crime drop was nicely beneath approach.
However such outcomes aren’t stunning. Probably the most dependable leads to polling is that in the event you ask People whether or not crime is rising, they’ll say sure. Astonishingly, in 23 of 27 nationwide surveys achieved by Gallup since 1993, People reported that they thought crime nationwide was rising — although most of these surveys have been achieved through the lengthy crime decline.
Crime is likely one of the greatest examples we now have of unhealthy information bias. By definition, a homicide is an outlier occasion that grabs our consideration, inevitably main the nightly native information. Typically, as through the pandemic, that bias can match actuality. But when we fail to regulate to what’s really occurring round us — not simply what we suppose is going on — it gained’t simply make us suppose our cities are extra harmful than they are surely. It’ll sap vitality for the reforms that may actually make a distinction.
A model of this story initially appeared within the Good Information e-newsletter. Enroll right here!
