It is the second day of February, which suggests we’re turning as soon as once more to the climate prognostications of rodents (and different animals) hoisted out of their burrows. The critters who see or do not see their shadows on Groundhog Day are notoriously unreliable. Some, together with the famed Punxsatawney Phil (predicting six extra weeks of winter this 12 months), are unsuitable extra typically than they’re proper. And it isn’t like we are able to ever really maintain these furry little guys accountable or examine their work.
Sounds so much like AI.
I am not suggesting that we exchange Phil with a chatbot, or a hologram for that matter. Merely that counting on AI to inform you the correct factor or predict the long run is very like getting the forecast from a critter at a spot referred to as Gobbler’s Knob.
In any case, I requested some common AI fashions to faux they’re prognosticating groundhogs and inform us whether or not we’ll get six extra weeks of winter or an early spring. I used the identical immediate, asking the bots to “faux you’re a groundhog tasked with predicting the long-range climate forecast,” that means I obtained a whole lot of odd groundhog fan fiction within the responses.Â
ChatGPT predicts six extra weeks of winter
OpenAI’s common chatbot (utilizing the ChatGPT-5.2 mannequin) predicted six extra weeks of winter, with a twist:
“However — leans in conspiratorially — it will be the sneaky form of winter,” it mentioned. “A pretend spring right here, a sunny 62-degree day there, simply sufficient hope to make you place the coat away… earlier than winter pops again up like ‘shock, nerd.'”
Sounds about proper.
(Disclosure: Ziff Davis, CNET’s father or mother firm, final 12 months filed a lawsuit towards OpenAI, alleging it infringed Ziff Davis copyrights in coaching and working its AI programs.)
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Claude requires an early spring
Anthropic’s AI device Claude (operating Sonnet 4.5) anticipated an early spring. That is all I would like to listen to. However the AI has its doubts:
“Now, between you and me, as groundhogs go, I’ve at all times been a bit skeptical of this entire shadow-based meteorological methodology,” it mentioned. “The correlation between Feb. 2 cloud cowl and the following six weeks of climate patterns is… for example, not precisely what the atmospheric scientists would name strong. However custom is custom, and the folks appear to take pleasure in it!”
A scholar of meteorology conducts analysis.
Gemini copies Phil’s notes
Identical to Punxsatawney Phil, Google’s Gemini 3 mannequin advised me it anticipated an extended winter. I can not inform if it generated the prediction from scratch or if it knew what Phil had already accomplished earlier within the morning, however, talking as Phil, it mentioned it noticed its shadow.Â
“It appears the winter winds aren’t fairly able to pack their baggage,” it mentioned. “Whereas a few of you is likely to be reaching to your parkas in frustration, keep in mind that I am simply the messenger — a extremely specialised, fur-clad messenger with a 39% historic accuracy charge (give or take a couple of snacks).”
Gemini requested if I needed a second opinion from considered one of its groundhog friends. I requested for the phrase in Ohio, and it advised me Buckeye Chuck was predicting an early spring. I believe Gemini is basing its info extra on precise info than simply pure hypothesis, however even the AI studies these “info” aren’t dependable.
Groundhogs are a fantastic mannequin for AI’s accuracy
Simply as totally different AI fashions can say various things primarily based on the identical immediate and data, totally different groundhogs can predict totally different climate on the identical day and in comparatively comparable atmospheric situations. The lesson is identical: Watch out once you’re making choices primarily based on one thing you’ll be able to’t examine your self — and maintain accountable.
Learn extra:Â Are You Utilizing ChatGPT? Keep away from These 11 Duties
