The previous week grew to become one of many weakest for the US greenback in latest months. USD started to lose its standing as an unconditional safe-haven asset. Political and geopolitical uncertainty round america elevated noticeably. Resonant statements by Donald Trump and the escalation of the Greenland concern grew to become extra strain elements. In opposition to this background, the market switched to a Promote America mode, triggering capital outflows from dollar-denominated belongings.
Help from the Federal Reserve additionally weakened. Inflation expectations within the US declined reasonably. This diminished arguments in favour of a extra restrictive financial coverage. On the identical time, robust macroeconomic information from the UK supported the pound and elevated strain on the US foreign money, pushing the DXY greenback index down from 99.4 to 97.6.
💶 EUR/USD
Beforehand, we urged {that a} assured breakout above 1.1700 would sign the cancellation of the bearish state of affairs and kind potential for a transfer in the direction of 1.1820. This forecast proved to be right. Over the week, the EUR/USD pair rose by 250 factors – from 1.1577 to 1.1827 – and returned to the higher boundary of the sideways channel during which it has been buying and selling since July 2025. Within the coming week, the pair could take a look at resistance within the 1.1880-1.1920 zone. A assured breakout of this space will affirm bullish momentum and open the way in which in the direction of 1.1975-1.2050. Nonetheless, after final week’s robust rally, a bearish correction in the direction of 1.1770 can’t be dominated out, adopted by a transfer to the 1.1680-1.1725 help zone. A breakdown beneath this space would improve the danger of a decline in the direction of 1.1580-1.1615.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Renewed investor flight from danger belongings, in fact, additionally affected bitcoin. The BTC/USD pair failed to carry above the higher boundary of the consolidation vary at 83,800-94,500 and fell in the direction of the Pivot Level at 90,000. On Saturday, January 24, it’s buying and selling round 89,500. If bitcoin nonetheless reacts to the weaker greenback, it could have an opportunity to partially get well its losses. The closest impediment would be the 90,350-91,500 zone, a breakout of which might permit the pair to focus on 94,500-95,000. The subsequent goal is 98,000. If danger appetites available in the market proceed to say no, the BTC/USD pair could lengthen its fall. The closest help zone is 86,360-87,175, adopted by 83,800-85,100.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
In contrast to bitcoin, oil responded to the weaker greenback with an increase in costs to 65.33 USD per barrel. Brent has shaped a brand new help degree at 62.75. If this degree fails, costs could fall into the 61.80-62.15 zone. The subsequent robust help is at 61.00. Within the case of continued bullish momentum, bulls could make one other try to consolidate above 66.50, which might open the way in which in the direction of 67.80-68.50.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Again in December, we forecast an increase in gold throughout the first months of 2026 to five,000 {dollars} per ounce. It seems that this forecast could also be fulfilled already by the tip of January – on Friday, the ultimate chord for the XAU/USD pair sounded at 4,988. A brand new upward try will deliver the 5,050 and 5,120 ranges into focus, from the place a correction decrease is feasible. Nonetheless, a bull entice can’t be dominated out, when the value, failing to beat the 5,000 degree, reverses sharply to the draw back. The closest help ranges are 4,900-4,935. If promoting strain intensifies, the danger of a deeper decline will increase – in the direction of 4,765. The subsequent robust help is at 4,640.
📈 Key Occasions and Baseline Eventualities of the Week
Within the coming week, the main target can be on the Federal Reserve assembly on January 27-28 and the regulator’s rhetoric, which can set the tone for rate of interest expectations for the approaching months. Extra curiosity can be generated by US GDP information for This autumn, in addition to inflation and labour market statistics. In Europe, buyers will assess enterprise exercise indicators (PMI) and alerts from the ECB.
Baseline situations: EUR/USD – reasonably bullish whereas the value holds above 1.1680-1.1725. BTC/USD – impartial to bearish whereas the value stays beneath 91,500. Brent – cautiously bullish whereas costs keep above 62.75. Gold – preservation of the upward construction, shopping for on corrections whereas XAU/USD holds above 4,900.
