Sovereign funding in Bitcoin is accelerating—simply not all the time in probably the most direct means. In a brand new report, Customary Chartered Financial institution says oblique publicity through Technique (previously MicroStrategy) is quietly rising amongst authorities entities, reinforcing the financial institution’s long-standing worth prediction that Bitcoin will attain $500,000 earlier than President Donald Trump leaves workplace in 2029.
“The most recent 13F information from the U.S. Securities and Change Fee (SEC) helps our core thesis that Bitcoin (BTC) will attain the $500,000 stage earlier than Trump leaves workplace because it attracts a wider vary of institutional patrons,” wrote Geoffrey Kendrick, Customary Chartered’s international head of digital belongings analysis. “As extra traders achieve entry to the asset and as volatility falls, we consider portfolios will migrate in direction of their optimum stage from an underweight beginning place in BTC.”
Q1 13F filings revealed a slowdown in direct bitcoin ETF shopping for—Wisconsin’s state fund exited its complete 3,400 BTC-equivalent IBIT place—whereas government-linked purchases of MSTR shares had been on the rise. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, as an example, upped its IBIT publicity to five,000 BTC equal, however Kendrick says the larger story is elsewhere.
“We consider that in some circumstances, MSTR holdings by authorities entities replicate a want to achieve Bitcoin publicity the place native rules don’t enable direct BTC holdings,” he stated.
France and Saudi Arabia took first-time MSTR positions in Q1. In the meantime, Norway’s Authorities Pension Fund, the Swiss Nationwide Financial institution, and South Korea’s public funds every added publicity equal to 700 BTC. U.S. retirement funds in states like California and New York added a mixed 1,000 BTC equal through MSTR. Kendrick known as the pattern “very encouraging.”
“The quarterly 13F information is one of the best take a look at of our thesis that BTC will entice new institutional purchaser varieties because the market matures, serving to the value attain our USD 500,000 stage,” Kendrick stated. “When establishments purchase Bitcoin, costs are likely to rise.”
This isn’t Kendrick’s first bullish name. Final month, he admitted his prior $120K forecast for Q2 2025 was “too low,” citing surging inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs—totaling $5.3 billion over simply three weeks. On the time, Kendrick revised his 2025 year-end goal to $200,000.
Customary Chartered’s newest evaluation exhibits that Bitcoin’s position in institutional portfolios is maturing past tech volatility correlation—now more and more seen as a macro hedge. “It’s now all about flows,” Kendrick stated. “And flows are coming in lots of varieties.”Â
