The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is buying and selling round $684, hovering precariously close to its 20-day shifting common after a risky November selloff that rattled bulls and raised questions concerning the sustainability of 2025’s spectacular rally.
However now the burning query is:
Will SPY reclaim its uptrend and push towards new highs above $690, or is that this consolidation the calm earlier than one other leg down towards the 50-day EMA?
S&P 500 ETF (SPY): Every day Chart
SPY’s development stays bullish however is in a maturing, grinding advance with momentum fading and value susceptible to a deeper imply‑reversion towards the 50‑ and even 200‑day EMA if assist offers approach.
Pattern and Construction
The day by day chart reveals a robust uptrend that dominated most of 2025, with SPY surging from the April lows close to $480 to latest highs round $690, a acquire of over 40% for the yr.
Worth stays above all three key exponential shifting averages (EMAs), with the 20-period EMA at $679.51, the 50-period EMA at $674.14, and the 200-period EMA at $636.50.
The bullish stacking of those indicators, the place shorter-term averages are above longer-term ones, confirms the medium-to-long-term uptrend stays technically intact.
Nevertheless, the November motion tells a extra nuanced story.
SPY skilled a pointy selloff and noticed the index plunge from the $690 space down to check the $640 area, a decline of roughly 7% that triggered widespread concern a few deeper correction.
However right here’s the factor: the next V-shaped restoration has introduced the worth proper again to the EMA cluster, suggesting sturdy underlying demand at decrease ranges.
The market bounced decisively off the $640 assist zone and has now reclaimed each the 50-day and 20-day EMAs.
The present value motion reveals SPY consolidating in a good vary between $680 and $690, with comparatively indecisive candlesticks forming over the previous a number of classes.
Such a consolidation after a pointy decline and restoration typically precedes both a breakout continuation or a retest of latest lows.
Momentum and MACD Evaluation
The MACD indicator at present reads -0.48, residing in damaging territory and signaling a lack of bullish momentum in comparison with the sturdy readings seen all through the summer season and early fall rally.
The MACD histogram reveals the indicator not too long ago crossed beneath its sign line, producing a bearish crossover that coincided with the November selloff.
Whereas the MACD has stabilized and is not diving deeper into damaging territory, it hasn’t but turned optimistic or generated a bullish crossover that may affirm renewed upside momentum.
This divergence between value motion (which has recovered considerably) and momentum (which stays damaging) creates an attention-grabbing technical setup.
Both momentum will meet up with value and generate a bullish MACD crossover to substantiate the restoration, or value will roll over to align with the weaker momentum image.
The histogram bars present diminishing promoting stress, however haven’t but flipped to point out significant shopping for momentum.
This neutral-to-slightly bearish momentum studying suggests warning for aggressive bullish positions till we see clearer proof of momentum confirming the worth restoration.
Key Help and Resistance Ranges
Resistance ranges to observe:
- Speedy resistance: $688-$690 (latest consolidation highs)
- Main psychological stage: $700 (spherical quantity, untested territory)
- Prolonged goal: $710-$720 primarily based on channel projection if breakout happens
Crucial assist ranges:
- First line of protection: $679-$680 (20 EMA, present consolidation ground)
- Dynamic assist: $674 (50 EMA, efficiently held throughout latest restoration)
- Sturdy assist zone: $660-$665 (earlier consolidation space from October)
- Main assist: $636 (200 EMA, key long-term development indicator)
- Crucial assist: $640-$645 (November low, line within the sand for bulls)
The 20 EMA at $679.51 is the quick stage to observe.
A decisive break beneath this could seemingly set off a retest of the 50 EMA at $674, whereas a maintain above it retains the door open for a retest of the $690 resistance.
The November low round $640-$645 now serves because the essential assist that should maintain to take care of the general bullish construction.
A break beneath that stage would sign that the correction has extra room to run and will goal the 200 EMA at $636 and even the psychological $600 stage.
Buying and selling Outlook and Danger Evaluation
SPY is at a crossroads, consolidating close to key short-term shifting averages with conflicting alerts between value restoration and momentum weak spot.
The present setup presents alternatives for each bulls and bears, however requires persistence and exact threat administration given the blended technical image.
Danger-reward at present favors ready for a transparent directional break fairly than forcing trades on this consolidation zone.
Bullish State of affairs
A decisive break and shut above $690 would affirm that the November selloff was merely a wholesome correction inside a bigger uptrend. This may goal the psychological $700 stage and probably $710-$720 as prolonged goals.
If this situation performs out, we’d count on to see the MACD generate a bullish crossover and transfer again into optimistic territory, confirming the momentum shift.
The elemental backdrop of resilient financial knowledge, potential additional Fed fee cuts in 2026, and year-end positioning flows would assist this consequence.
Bulls would acquire confidence if SPY can keep assist above each the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, maintaining the higher-low construction intact.
A breakout above $690 on sturdy quantity could be the set off sign for brand new lengthy entries.
Bearish/Correction State of affairs
The damaging MACD studying and the failure to convincingly reclaim the prior highs counsel the November selloff could have been greater than only a shakeout.
If SPY breaks beneath the $679-$680 assist zone and the 20 EMA, it will seemingly set off a retest of the 50 EMA at $674.
A extra important concern would come up if value breaks beneath $674, which might speed up promoting towards the $660-$665 zone and even the November lows at $640-$645.
The weakening momentum proven by the MACD helps the opportunity of not less than a retest of the decrease finish of this vary.
Bears in search of quick alternatives or these wanting to purchase protecting places ought to look ahead to a confirmed break beneath the 20 EMA with growing quantity.
A day by day shut beneath $678 could be the set off for defensive positioning.
Close to-Time period Consolidation
The almost definitely situation within the quick time period could also be continued consolidation between $680 and $690 because the market digests latest positive factors and awaits year-end catalysts.
This may enable the MACD to probably base and generate a bullish crossover with out the worth needing to make new highs instantly.
Merchants might search for range-bound methods or look ahead to a transparent break of both boundary earlier than committing to directional trades.
Longer-Time period Issues
So long as SPY stays above the 50 EMA at $674, the intermediate-term uptrend construction stays viable.
The 200 EMA at $636 represents the last word line of protection for the long-term bull market.
The November selloff examined the resolve of bulls however in the end discovered patrons prepared to step in on the $640 stage.
Whether or not these patrons have sufficient conviction to drive SPY to new highs or whether or not they’ll be overwhelmed by distribution at present ranges might be answered within the coming classes.
Watch how the worth reacts on the present $680-$690 consolidation vary. That may seemingly decide the trajectory for early 2026.
