Bitcoin is holding round $122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian hours after setting a file excessive at $126,200 earlier this week, with some market watchers nonetheless anticipating a surge to a file $140,000 later this month.
Economist Timothy Peterson stated in an X put up Tuesday that bitcoin has a 50% likelihood of rising to $140,000, citing simulations that have been primarily based on knowledge from the previous decade.
“There’s a 50% likelihood Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k,” Peterson stated in an X put up on Wednesday. “However there’s a 43% likelihood Bitcoin finishes beneath $136k.”
Half of Bitcoin’s October beneficial properties might have already occurred, in accordance with this AI simulation.
There’s a 50% likelihood Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
However there’s a 43% likelihood Bitcoin finishes beneath $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
BTC is up practically 10% for the reason that begin of October, which has traditionally been some of the bullish intervals for all monetary belongings. The transfer has been pushed by file ETF inflows and exodus of cash from centralized exchanges.
Alternate balances have dropped to a six-year low of two.83 million BTC, with 170,000 cash withdrawn prior to now month. That blend of regular institutional shopping for and shrinking provide has stored pullbacks shallow. The U.S-listed spot ETFs have added greater than $60 billion since approvals in January 2204, together with $3.2 billion final week, the second-largest weekly consumption on file.
Buying and selling desks word that the trail of least resistance continues to be greater as “Uptober” performs out. In addition to, the outlook for S&P 500 stays constructive, supporting the bull case in BTC.
“Choices markets are pricing in a feral 5% likelihood for one more 10% rally within the SPX into year-end, and it’s more and more tough to discover a damaging catalyst to counteract that view,” stated Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, stated in a Telegram message. “We noticed little brief liquidation on the latest hole up, suggesting contributors are underweight with minimal threat exposures.”
Nonetheless, the optimism just isn’t with out threat.
“The crypto market is navigating a fragile steadiness between robust technical help and important macroeconomic uncertainty,” stated Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Analysis. “Accumulation tendencies and institutional demand have propelled costs to new highs, however optimism continues to be uncovered to surprises from the Fed.”
The absence of recent financial knowledge releases because of the ongoing U.S. authorities shutdown has depriving traders essential insights wanted to make recent allocations. Some observers are fearful that lack of recent knowledge, notably inflation, might preserve the Fed from chopping charges.
When FOMC and Magazine-7 earnings arrive later this month, the info will collide with a market already prolonged and leaning bullish. That can determine if the following transfer is a clear run to $140,000 or a reset additional decrease.
BTC’s rally has paused prior to now 24 hours, because of profit-taking. Costs have dropped greater than 2%,, erasing a run-up since Sunday and knocking down XRP, Solana’s SOL, ether and Cardano’s ADA down as a lot as 7%.
BNB Chain’s BNB stands out with 1.5% beneficial properties in the identical interval, the lone wolf within the inexperienced as its underlying ecosystem sees a flurry of recent exercise.
My lens: $125,000 is the battle line. ETF demand and whale withdrawals give the bulls a cushion, however the quiet from macro won’t final.
