Bitcoin miner revenues have compressed sharply for the reason that April 2024 halving.
Transaction charges presently contribute round 1.48% of block rewards, close to the lowest share since 2023.
The decline highlights a rising reliance on subsidy earnings, which dropped to three.125 BTC per block following the halving.
Hashprice has additionally remained stagnant.
At $48.9 per PH/s/day in late April, miner income failed to trace Bitcoin’s spot value close to $95,000. This dynamic has left power-hungry mining rigs working at a loss. Models operating between 25-38 J/TH earned about $0.06 per kWh, falling in need of grid prices estimated at $0.08.
Charge spikes from Ordinals and Runes exercise proved momentary. Regardless of surging to $127 per transaction throughout Runes’ April 2024 launch, common charges have since collapsed beneath $2.
The fading blockspace demand raises considerations concerning the sustainability of transaction-driven miner earnings. Whereas 650 million customers now have oblique entry to Lightning Community channels, off-chain transactions haven’t materially boosted block rewards.
Builders are watching OP_CAT and CTV soft-fork proposals as potential catalysts. Galaxy Analysis expects consensus by 2025, although activation timelines stay unsure.
Stress situations spotlight miner vulnerability. With Bitcoin priced at $96,000 and price earnings at 1%, practically 35% of the community might face damaging money circulation at commonplace electrical energy charges.
CryptoSlate modeling utilizing Luxor hashprice and Coin Metrics ASIC-mix knowledge exhibits that at an $85k BTC value and costs caught at 1 % of the block reward, roughly a 3rd of put in hashpower would function beneath cash-flow breakeven at $0.08 /kWh.
At $96k, Bitcoin’s value rally shaves the ache, however one in 5 hashes remains to be unprofitable if the price share stays pinned at 1 %. The subsidy alone can’t maintain mid-gen rigs buzzing on $0.08 energy for lengthy, highlighting simply how fee-sensitive post-halving miner margins have change into.
Older ASICs might pause first, driving fleet upgrades and testing Bitcoin’s decentralization. With out stronger price markets or new demand cycles, the post-halving setting is tightening margins industry-wide.
