An financial slowdown south of the border is now not a forecast, it’s a truth. U.S. GDP development got here in at simply 1.4% annualized within the fourth quarter, unemployment was 4.4% in February, and commerce coverage uncertainty remains to be unresolved. For Canadian traders, which means the query has shifted from “what if the U.S. slows” to “which of my holdings can hold incomes whereas it does.”
U.S. demand influences the whole lot from manufacturing facility output to freight volumes to power costs, and the TSX contains loads of Canadian shares that depend upon that engine. That’s why it helps to personal a couple of companies that may hold incomes whilst development cools.
Supply: Getty Photos
TIH
Toromont Industries (TSX:TIH) seems to be constructed for a softer U.S. backdrop because it makes cash from holding tools operating, not simply from promoting shiny new machines. It sells and providers heavy tools by its Gear Group, and it owns CIMCO, which builds industrial refrigeration techniques for meals and cold-chain infrastructure. During the last yr, it benefited from regular product assist demand and robust order exercise, even whereas administration talked overtly about “macroeconomic and commerce uncertainty.”
The newest outcomes confirmed that it could possibly keep regular even with out a booming financial system. In This autumn 2025, income rose 9% to $1.42 billion, and web earnings edged as much as $157.2 million, or $1.93 per share. For full-year 2025, income rose 4% to $5.2028 billion, with web earnings of $496.6 million and earnings per share (EPS) of $6.11. It additionally elevated its quarterly dividend to $0.56 per share. Valuation stays premium, with a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) round 33.6 and a ahead P/E round 23.1, so the chance is that any slowdown compresses the a number of even when the enterprise retains performing.
BIR
Birchcliff Power (TSX:BIR) can maintain up in a U.S. slowdown because it runs a low-cost Montney fuel enterprise with significant publicity to higher-priced markets. It leaned into market diversification, promoting into Daybreak and NYMEX-linked pricing quite than residing and dying by AECO. During the last yr, that positioning mattered as fuel pricing swung round, and Birchcliff centered on doing the fundamentals nicely: develop manufacturing, cut back debt, and hold a base dividend that doesn’t power dangerous selections.
In 2025, it generated adjusted funds move of $422.8 million in 2025, up sharply from 2024, and free funds move of $116.9 million. It decreased whole debt to $459.9 million and improved its whole debt to adjusted funds move ratio to 1.1 occasions at year-end 2025. That form of balance-sheet progress can matter greater than a sizzling commodity tape if the U.S. slows and danger urge for food fades. The valuation nonetheless bakes in some warning, with a trailing P/E round 24.4, and the primary danger stays apparent: a weak fuel market can nonetheless bully any producer, even a disciplined one.
GIL
Gildan Activewear (TSX:GIL) won’t sound defensive at first, however fundamentals could be surprisingly sturdy in a slower financial system. Folks could delay massive purchases, however they nonetheless purchase on a regular basis attire, and firms nonetheless order printwear for uniforms, occasions, and workwear. During the last yr, Gildan additionally reshaped its story with the HanesBrands acquisition, which added scale and types.
The newest quarter put actual numbers behind that momentum. In This autumn 2025, it reported web gross sales of about US$1.08 billion, up 31.3% yr over yr, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.96. Money move from operations got here in at $336 million, and free money move reached $304 million for the quarter, with full-year free money move of $493 million. It additionally introduced a ten% dividend improve for 2026 and talked about concentrating on significant price financial savings from the deal.
Backside line
You do not want to cover below the sofa when the U.S. slows, however you do wish to personal firms that may hold producing actual outcomes. Not one of the shares I talked about are risk-free, however every has a sensible purpose it could possibly hold standing, even when the U.S. financial system takes a breather. That’s the form of pondering that comes up on a regular basis in Inventory Advisor Canada: Put money into shares with a purpose to carry up, not only a hope. If that message resonates with you, it’s price trying out.
