Bitcoin (BTC) rewards buyers essentially the most who maintain it for no less than three years, based on knowledge shared by André Dragosch, head of analysis at Bitwise Europe.
Key takeaways:
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Holding BTC for no less than three years has traditionally slashed losses to only 0.70%.
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Bitcoin value predictions for 2026–2027 cluster round $100,000–$150,000 in bullish situations.
Lengthy-term Bitcoin holders hardly ever lose
A Bitwise evaluation reviewed Bitcoin’s value historical past between July 17, 2010, and Feb. 11, 2026, concluding that the likelihood of being within the pink drops to only 0.70% when BTC is held for no less than three years.
In different phrases, almost all rolling three-year entry factors in Bitcoin’s historical past ended up worthwhile. Past three years, the chance of loss fell even additional: 0.2% over 5 years and 0% over ten years.
Merchants holding Bitcoin for lower than three years confronted a a lot greater danger of loss.
Intraday patrons, for example, had a 47.1% likelihood of being underwater. That likelihood stayed elevated at 44.7% over one week, 43.2% over one month, and 24.3% over a one-year holding interval.
Stronger fingers are 90% in revenue already
The realized value metric additionally exhibits declines in holders’ losses over multi-year home windows.
As of Saturday, Bitcoin was down by roughly 50% from its October 2025 excessive, buying and selling for round $65,000.
That was approach above its three-to-five-year realized value of $34,780, which means buyers who purchased and held via that window had been nonetheless sitting on an roughly 90% revenue.
In the meantime, some merchants argue the continued Bitcoin value correction may lengthen towards $30,000.
A transfer to that degree would wipe out a lot of the cohort’s cushion, pushing the three–5 yr band nearer to breakeven. That might additional take a look at whether or not these holders begin including to promote strain or sit tight.
Conversely, most merchants who purchased Bitcoin prior to now two years had been underwater.
The associated fee foundation of the 6m–12m cohort, entities which were holding BTC for as much as a yr, was round $101,250, leaving them with roughly a 35% in unrealized loss as of Saturday.
Nonetheless, the 1y–2y cohort’s price foundation was decrease, round $78,150, translating into a few 15% unrealized loss.
The hole strengthened the identical sample seen within the holding-period knowledge: the longer the holding window, the smaller the drawdown tends to be throughout corrections.
How excessive can BTC value go?
Longer-term forecasts nonetheless cluster round a handful of upside targets for 2026–2027.
As an illustration, international brokerage agency Bernstein maintained its $150,000 BTC value name for 2026, pointing to comparatively modest internet outflows of about 7% from spot Bitcoin ETFs, at the same time as BTC’s value fell by 50%.
“The present Bitcoin value motion is a mere disaster of confidence,” Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani stated.
Customary Chartered, in the meantime, warned of a possible “last capitulation” section that would drag BTC towards $50,000 amid weak ETF flows and a more durable macro backdrop, earlier than recovering towards $100,000 by the tip of 2026.
Trying into 2027, Timothy Peterson’s historic “common return” framework factors to $122,000 by early 2027, with excessive odds that BTC trades above that determine.
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