Barclays expects a extra tepid 12 months for crypto in 2026, with buying and selling volumes trending down and investor enthusiasm waning. In a wide-ranging year-end report revealed Friday, the financial institution flagged a tough backdrop for digital asset exchanges like Coinbase (COIN), citing unclear catalysts for renewed exercise and a sluggish begin to token adoption efforts.
Retail-facing exchanges, which benefited from surging buying and selling curiosity through the crypto bull runs of prior years, are actually going through a extra subdued atmosphere. Barclays analysts famous that buying and selling quantity in spot markets — key income drivers for firms like Coinbase and Robinhood (HOOD) — has cooled sharply. With no clear spark to reignite demand, volumes could stay muted.
“Spot crypto buying and selling volumes […] seem like trending in the direction of a down-year in FY26, and it isn’t clear to us what would possibly reverse this development,” the analysts wrote.
Crypto markets have a tendency to maneuver on massive occasions: coverage bulletins, product launches or political adjustments. Barclays pointed to previous bursts of exercise, just like the March 2024 spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) inflows or the pro-crypto presidential win in November as key drivers of short-term spikes. However within the absence of such occasions, the financial institution sees structural progress as missing.
One space that might stir the market is regulation. Barclays highlighted the pending CLARITY Act, laws that will assist outline the road between digital commodities and securities and make clear which U.S. company — the U.S. Securities and Change Fee (SEC) or the smaller Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC) — regulates which belongings. Whereas not a assured market mover, the invoice might ease operational uncertainty for crypto firms and buyers alike. If handed, it might open the door for clearer product launches, particularly in tokenized belongings.
Coinbase stays a focus in Barclays’ evaluation. Whereas the corporate is increasing into derivatives and tokenized fairness buying and selling, the financial institution sees headwinds from shrinking spot volumes and rising working prices.
“COIN has a quantity [of] progress initiatives in addition to latest acquisitions that might begin to turn into extra impactful,” the report acknowledged. However, analysts revised their value goal for the inventory all the way down to $291, citing a extra conservative earnings outlook.
Tokenization continues to achieve consideration from each crypto-native and conventional finance companies. BlackRock (BLK), Robinhood (HOOD), and others have been piloting merchandise on this house. However Barclays cautions the development is early-stage and unlikely to materially affect earnings in 2026.
In the meantime, the U.S. political atmosphere has turned extra favorable for digital belongings following latest elections. Nevertheless, Barclays sees a lot of this optimism already priced into the market. Any legislative motion, just like the CLARITY Act, would want to go via the Senate and survive attainable authorized challenges earlier than having any sensible affect.
In sum, 2026 could also be a transitional 12 months for crypto. With declining retail exercise and no instant tailwinds, firms are specializing in long-term bets like tokenized finance and compliance upgrades. Whether or not these investments bear fruit subsequent 12 months or additional out stays unsure.
