There’s an terrible lot of hype surrounding AI, and much more capital behind it. AI information facilities are propping up the useconomy proper now, accounting for over 1% of GDP. So when somebody suggests the race will not be being received, or worse, that the AI race could also be over, it makes folks sit up of their seats.
That’s what Adam Livingston, writer of The Bitcoin Age, claims: it’s already recreation over: China has pulled far forward, not by out-coding the U.S., however by quietly cornering the one useful resource frontier AI wants most—vitality, particularly nuclear energy.
However how a lot fact is there to this narrative, and are issues actually so black and white?
Nuclear scoreboard: reality vs. fiction
Livingston highlights a placing disparity. China is at the moment constructing 16 nuclear energy crops, whereas the USA has zero. He’s not far off together with his numbers. As of late 2025, China has about 30 reactors beneath development, with repeated yearly approval for extra, making up practically half the world’s new builds.
Some analysts say China goals to succeed in 65 gigawatts of nuclear capability by the top of this 12 months and 200 gigawatts by 2040 (roughly a tenfold development).
Against this, the U.S. accomplished its Vogtle 3 and 4 reactors after prolonged delays and value overruns. At the moment, there aren’t any brand-new large-scale nuclear tasks on the ground-breaking stage.
But, this isn’t the entire image. For the primary time in years, there are new plans for U.S. nuclear. Following current government orders and coverage reforms, Westinghouse introduced intentions to assemble 10 large reactors by 2030. Work is anticipated to start within the subsequent few years.
Nevertheless, regulatory hurdles, public skepticism, and the sheer complexity of nuclear buildouts imply execution is much from assured, and precise new development just isn’t but underway.
Power: the true AI bottleneck?
Livingston poses an vital query: Are we underestimating the function of pure vitality in AI progress? Mannequin coaching and inference have turn out to be ravenous for electrical energy.
Coaching frontier fashions like GPT-4 requires tens of megawatts, and data-center energy demand within the U.S. is projected to greater than double over the subsequent decade (as a lot as 78 gigawatts by 2035).
World information heart vitality consumption hit 415 terawatt-hours in 2024, forecast to double by 2030, with AI accounting for a rising share. So, in concept, nations that may deploy essentially the most regular, carbon-free energy will certainly have a bonus within the AI race.
China’s method to industrial coverage is direct, top-down, and aggressive. It has allowed it to ramp up nuclear development quickly, whereas American utilities have relied extra on upgrades, license extensions, and sluggish, market-based exercise.
However whereas China is advancing quick, the U.S. can also be targeted on bettering effectivity and leveraging new applied sciences reminiscent of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and renewables to complement its base.
Is the AI race already over?
Has “the funeral already occurred,” as Livingston claims? The reply appears much less definitive. China’s nuclear growth is actual and spectacular, and its linkage to AI infrastructure just isn’t far-fetched. AI does critically rely upon steady, inexpensive energy.
Nevertheless, U.S. leaders and corporations aren’t precisely standing nonetheless. New tasks, coverage strikes, and elevated funding in each vitality and AI are choosing up, however thus far, they aren’t matching China’s scale or pace.
The American benefit in foundational AI analysis, chip design, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise funding stays vital. Even when data-center energy turns into a constraint, innovation in effectivity, sensible grids, and distributed computation may slim the hole.
Notably, “vitality wars” could turn out to be as vital as software program or information, however the end result will rely upon far more than the variety of nuclear crops alone. Livingston’s arguments spotlight an ignored facet of the worldwide tech battle, however declare the funeral untimely. The scoreboard is altering, however the AI race isn’t over but.
