In my Substack Weblog put up printed per week in the past, final Wednesday, I acknowledged that there have been a number of technical elements, because the title advised, that there was potential “Early Indicators of a Crack within the Again of the Nasdaq 100 Index’s Rally”. My solely concern at the moment was that I used to be sticking my neck out with that warning, contemplating that over the remainer of the week there was just a few potential information occasions that might invoke volatility within the charges market that might seemingly overflow into the fairness markets. That proved to be an inexpensive concern, and my technical thesis was promptly “Jackson Holed” final Friday and traders have been caught “mistaken sided” and equities, together with the NDX Index rallied sharply. In doing so it retook the bottom again above the damaged Kijun Plot (inexperienced line) There was a measure comply with via over the remainder of the week till right this moment. That five-day rally from per week in the past final Wednesday’s low couldn’t even start to problem the Decrease Warning Line (purple dashed line) of the longer-term Normal Pitchfork (purple P1 via P3).
I drew a shorter-term Schiff Pitchfork (inexperienced P1 although P3) after final Friday’s rally that encompasses what I believe is a distributive high. Observe the continued Relative underperformance vs. the SPX within the decrease panel. Beneath that, MACD solely briefly stabilized however has turned decrease once more (word histogram in inexperienced) and stays beneath its sign line. I now mark first assist on the Decrease Parallel of the brand new Schiff Pitchfork and second stays at Cloud Help. Observe that the Cloud is not mirroring the vector of the longer-term Normal Pitchfork. My technical thesis of that we’re witnessing a distributive high might be negated with a rally that’s in a position retake the bottom above the Decrease Parallel (purple LWL) and the August 13th value pivot at inexperienced P2
Chart is courtesy of Optuma
