In line with economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% probability of topping $140,000 earlier than the month ends. He posted that chance on X and backed it with simulation work that makes use of a decade of value strikes to map seemingly outcomes.
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Simulation Primarily based On Historic Information
Peterson stated the mannequin runs tons of of simulations utilizing each day Bitcoin costs going again to 2015. Primarily based on these runs, he put the prospect Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 at 50%.
He additionally gave a 43% chance that the worth will finish the month under $136k. On the time he spoke, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $121,200. Which means an increase of about 11% could be wanted to achieve $140,000 from the present stage.
Half of Bitcoin’s October positive factors might have already occurred, in accordance with this AI simulation.
There’s a 50% probability Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
However there’s a 43% probability Bitcoin finishes under $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
Bitcoin set a contemporary all-time excessive of $126,200 on Monday, then cooled off. The coin started October at roughly $116,500, so the month has already produced positive factors.
In line with information, October has been the second-best month on common since 2013, with typical positive factors of 20%. Stories have disclosed that November is the strongest month traditionally, averaging 46% positive factors since 2013.
No Human Emotion
Peterson described his forecast as pushed by information quite than human emotion. He stated every projection follows value adjustments that mirror Bitcoin’s previous volatility and rhythm.
That strategy goals to take away bias from short-term sentiment. Nonetheless, there are limits to what historic simulations can present.
Bitcoin has typically moved in ways in which didn’t match previous patterns. Market reactions, coverage strikes, and different forces can push costs off the script that historical past suggests.
Market Sentiment Stays Bullish
Different analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the latest excessive. One analyst stated the market was retesting prior highs and will transfer greater.
One other wrote that stress was constructing for additional positive factors. These views sit alongside data-led forecasts and are being watched by merchants and funds.
Bitcoin is the brand new hurdle price.
In the event you can’t beat it, it’s a must to purchase it.
I defined on @SquawkCNBC this morning why so many traders usually are not producing the returns they suppose they’re. pic.twitter.com/re98rjCDua
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 7, 2025
Macro Notes From A Outstanding Investor
Stories have additionally carried feedback from Anthony Pompliano, who argued on CNBC that Bitcoin’s rally can proceed if governments and central banks maintain printing cash.
JUST IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin won’t ever cease going up.
“They may by no means cease printing cash.” pic.twitter.com/qeWJnTsIb3
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 7, 2025
His view hyperlinks financial coverage to Bitcoin demand, and it’s broadly shared amongst supporters who see the asset as a hedge.
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Featured picture from Verdict, chart from TradingView
